People "now spontaneously connect immigration and the EU".
People also repeatedly mention ... Abu Hamza, who combines immigration, benefits, Europe and human rights in one striking story.What concerns the third of voters who are undecided is that businesses will close and jobs will be lost if we leave the EU.
The focus of any future referendum choice will therefore be: do you fear economic disaster? If the answer is yes, then voters will reluctantly vote to stay. If not, then the prize of controlling immigration and "saving all the cash" means they will vote to leave.Cameron is - rightly - distrusted on the referendum. He won't threaten to leave the EU, which confirms suspicions that he is "not serious".
Cummings magisterially concludes that it is unlikely we will remove the supremacy of EU law and negotiate a new treaty until we have a prime minister who can articulate inspiring goals "in a completely different way to the petulant and hollow Euroscepticism of David Cameron": someone who is supported by an unprecedented grassroots movement mobilising small businesses and can exploit "beneficial crises".
We cannot conjure leaders from thin air, he concludes, but we can build the movement as we await the crises.
Cummings is utterly right in his scorn for Cameron, who is merely tactical and managerial, and not much good at either of them. But what do his focus groups tell us? That the EU-immigration linkage is made. That the pro-EU faction is in political terms right to keep hammering at the risks to the economy of leaving.
There's no sign of a leader who can put forward a modern, inspiring vision of life after the EU, together with a robust route map of how to get there.
Probably it will take a political maverick with huge personal ambition to step up and beat this drum over and over again. (No, David Davis, not you, you blew it.)