December 12, 2011

L'exception francaise

France is preparing for the possible loss of its prized triple A credit rating, Angelique Chrisafis tells us in The Guardian, "which the markets fear is possible despite last week's Brussels summit aimed at shoring up confidence in the eurozone".

Despite? It was another summit that solved nothing.
France, the second-biggest economy in the eurozone, was the only AAA country singled out for a possible two-notch credit downgrade because of growth predictions seen as too optimistic, the threat of recession, budget cuts judged to be inadequate and the exposure of its banks to the sovereign debt crisis in Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain.
Just little local difficulties, then. A poll found that just over half of French people feared that a credit rating downgrade would have a big impact on their daily lives, we're told. Are we then to imagine that in the village bars and the rundown suburban estates the French shift uneasily and speak of little else?

Never mind, their budget minister, Valerie Pecresse, stepped up and "attempted to calm the mood". So it's serious then. She said a downgrade "would make things more difficult" and "wouldn't be positive". We're with you there, Valerie. However, it would not change the government's economic policy on how to lift the deeply indebted French government out of the red after more than 30 years without balancing a budget.

Hm, possibly that point about the 30 years was written by The Guardian rather than spelled out by Valerie. She went on:
We work for the French people, not for the ratings agencies.
Yes, yes.
No one doubts France's ability to pay back its debt.
So they won't downgrade you then?

Now, it's French policy that Southern Europe needs years of austerity to balance its budgets. But that's not for France. 'She said an austerity plan that was "too violent" would risk harming growth'. Well yes austerity does that. Which is exactly your policy for your southern neighbours.

She also denied the government would need to bail out its biggest banks. We'll see.

Meanwhile M de Villepin says he intends to stand for president, defending "a certain vision of France," that includes less dependence on market speculation.

Oh, going to start running a surplus, are we? Okay, maybe a balanced budget? Well, perhaps not:
I worry, that I see France is being humiliated by the law of the markets, this law that imposes austerity.
So it will be a policy which lessens dependence on the markets, but without austerity. Got that?

Mrs Thatcher famously used to say that you can't buck the market. France, it seems, is above that. No austerity for France, France is too grand ... that seems to command general agreement. In France.

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