November 29, 2011

Spanish and Italian voters just won't stand for this

Open Europe's press summary reports that
A leaked European Commission report seen by Italian daily La Repubblica reveals that Italy is likely to be told at the end of today’s meeting of eurozone finance ministers that it needs to adopt a new package of savings worth at least €11bn as quickly as possible....

Separately, an article in El País reports that Spain’s incoming centre-right government may have to adopt austerity measures worth between €15bn and €30bn early next year, depending on what the country’s deficit at the end of 2011. Secretary-General of Spanish Partido Popular, María Dolores de Cospedal, yesterday confirmed that the new government will enter into office on 22 December.
Italian politicians and unions simply won't countenance cuts on this scale. Spanish voters seemed more cowed during the recent election, but there isn't even the level of grudging acceptance there that can be seen in Ireland. As for Italy, such proposals would simply make it ungovernable. And did anyone mention Greece?

But will the Irish want to stay in the eurozone anyway, Paul Hannon wonders.
Some years hence, it's possible that Ireland will be a member of a currency area that it believes requires too much surrender of sovereignty, but with a debt that is now much more manageable because a good chunk has been written off.

The Irish might then be tempted to consider whether they want to be in that kind of euro zone, a very different beast from the one they joined in 1999.

And Ireland isn't the only small nation that places a high value on its independence. It is possible that the treaty changes proposed by Germany, France and Italy to help save the euro zone from a hard breakup will lead over time to a soft fracture.
Fintan O'Toole seems to be suggesting Ireland should go ahead and default now (h/t Richard North).

Without hard cuts, southern Europe will default, probably quite soon. With action, southern Europe will be ungovernable.

0 comments: