More stresses and strains for the EU

So the anti-euro-bailout True Finns seem to be emerging from the Finnish general election with 19% of the vote - up from 4% last time. The bailouts seem to be acceptable to Finland's other main parties, so even if the True Finns are invited into government they seem unlikely to be offered the Finance Ministry.

Far away in the south, even the EU thinks Greece's debt will rise from €298 billion in 2009 to €375 billion in 2013. As Charles Forelle points out, Greek debt won't go down until Greece has surplus cash to pay it off - but Greece "hasn't had a budget surplus in more than two decades".

So either the eurozone countries arrange for Greece to keep borrowing more and more as surreptitiously as possible for ever and ever, or Greece defaults.

A restructuring could well mean losses for those 15 lenders, which would be deeply resented in Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and other strong countries whose voters were wary of the bailouts to begin with. The euro-zone bailout loans explicitly rank equally with existing creditors, making it hard for the euro-zone countries to demand that private-sector creditors take haircuts while exempting themselves. The resolution remains uncertain.

From a political viewpoint, it's hard to see the euro-zone countries taking a loss, says one analyst. From a legal viewpoint, he adds, it's hard to see them not taking a loss.

Yet, says Irwin Stelzer, a debt restucturing proposal for Greece does exist. But how would France and Germany sell this to their voters? Sarko and Merkel must feel they're unpopular enough at home already.

Stelzer rehearses Spain's assertion that its economy is in good shape. He doubts it. Spain doesn't export much, its construction sector is flat on its back, its banks are not out of the wood yet, and "Madrid is finding it somewhere between difficult and impossible to rein in the spending of largely autonomous regional governments".

Whoever's in the new Finnish government, they're likely to enter the negotiations for a Portuguese bailout cautiously. They can be sure they'll be taking a loss on their Greek exposure; to set themselves up for a loss in Portugal too would be throwing good money after bad - and giving the True Finns more political momentum.

As the eurozone keeps tottering, France continues to flout the Schengen border agreement, as Richard North has been highlighting. Italy - always wanting to take from Europe, never give - wants to pass its Tunisian refugees on to France. This would be another blow to Sarko's already slim chances of being re-elected. So of course it's not going to happen.

As EU officialdom contemplates French and German defiance of Schengen, they must be wondering what position a new Finnish government will take on a Portuguese bailout. The EU's wobbling a fraction more this morning.