Today Ambrose is wondering how long democracies will tolerate economic depression and government cuts - since all projections suggest both would have to last for years in Club O'Med and the Baltic states. He notes, for instance, that the approval rating for Lithuania's prime minister has fallen to 7%. And in Hungary
The Fidesz movement – an amalgam of libertarians and nationalists with a Left-populist tilt – won a crushing victory in April on a campaign of defiance against both Brussels and the IMF. It has been spoiling for a fight ever since.Hungary cannot easily devalue, says Ambrose, because "63pc of loans from mortgages, households, and companies are in foreign currencies, much of it in the ever-soaring Swiss franc". Many companies and households would face ruin.
So what of the democracy dimension? On the one hand, there is a limit to how long voters will put up with long drawn out economic warfare. In Hungary there was a political group offering some other way. But what if, in troubled economies, compliance is the least bad way? Will mainstream opposition politicians campaign on defying international economic order if they suspect that would lead to a sudden worsening of living standards? European opposition parties will be watching Hungary.
More extreme parties, however, may see this as their only chance of power. And maybe voters increasingly desperate for a 'get out of jail free' card will have nowhere else to go.
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