April 30, 2007

Contrariness in Scotland

Evidently most Scots don't want independence, but do want to give Labour a bloody nose. Evidently this means voting SNP.

Labour claims independence would lead to lower state spending in Scotland. Translation: they'd lose the English subsidy.

Fine, say the SNP. We want to cut government spending anyway, and follow Ireland's path to prosperity.

Do the SNP mean it? And do Scots really want it? The answer to both these questions will probably turn out to be No.

April 29, 2007

Fingering Reid

John Reid has an article in The Sunday Telegraph suggesting various police reforms. Ahead of a review by Sir Ronnie Flanagan - whose hands were of course completely clean when he was in charge in Northern Ireland (isn't England different?) - Reid suggests four priorities.
  1. Embed local neighbourhood policing. This seems to involve the Home Office giving police forces quite detailed instructions about how they should operate at the most locals levels - that is, furthest away from the Home Office

  2. Cut bureaucracy. "The police need to be free from avoidable red tape to get on with their job." Oh, it's platitude time.

  3. "Increasing the efficient use of manpower and resources". This seems to mean central government asking police forces for slightly less information. Or - ahem - cutting avoidable red tape.

  4. This one is muddled!
    Let's explore how to increase local accountability while decreasing central direction. Ensuring that the police are accountable to the public they serve is essential in retaining confidence in the work they do. We should not be frightened of exploring new ways of doing this. We need to look at what works. Ideas like providing dedicated local phone numbers for the public to contact their neighbourhood policing teams directly, where they know who is responding to their concerns. The best are already doing this and building trust and better relationships with the communities they serve. We need to go further.
    This seems to duplicate 1 and aims to hand down more detailed instructions about how to work locally, so as to increase local accountability. Oh yes.
All in all, then, a feeble and muddled set of proposals.

The article is more important for what it doesn't say than for what it does. For, in an inspired piece, the paper's political editor claims that Reid "is to consider plans for directly elected police commissioners".

Strange, then, that this doesn't feature in the piece authored in Reid's own name. The aim seems to be to spike the Conservatives' guns.
The policy, strikingly similar to police reform plans announced by David Cameron earlier this year, would allow commissioners to take charge of budgets, staffing and target-setting, while leaving operational control of forces in the hands of chief constables.
This would at best give local electorates very uncertain leverage on the way their local police forces run themselves.

And not being in Reid's mediocre piece, the idea is eminently deniable.

One comment on Reid's piece posted on the Telegraph's site keeps another issue before us.
John Reid is the MP elected in Scotland to represent his Scottish constituents at UK level, but once away from home, has taken a job that puts him in charge of English law and english prisons and english police.

You know what's missing, Mr Reid? Democracy, that's what. You are not serving your constituents by running England's services and no one in England can vote for or against you. That includes our policemen and women. You are nothing but a dictator. Do the decent thing and stick with your remit.
If he is prepared to add his name to mediocre pap like today's article under his name, he should not be missed.

April 28, 2007

Expensive Scotland

Sky News has a feature on the level of state spending in Scotland.
Due to a historical quirk that was supposed to have been ironed out years ago, Edinburgh's devolved parliament gets £1,500 more from the public purse per head of population.
The so-called Barnett formula is blamed for the inequality in public spending, says Sky News, "and even its creator has called for it to be reformed".
But political commentators say it would be a brave Westminster government that cut spending in Scotland in case it provided ammunition for those calling for independence.
No doubts about where the Sky journalist's sympathies lie.

Too big to manage

How many people are employed in state education and the Nationalised Health Service?

The number of staff in state schools was 740,400. In the NHS the headcount was 1.34m.

Both organisations are so huge as to be unmanageable even by hugely talented managers, let alone by preening politicians catapulted into responsibilities for which they're unfitted by training or experience, let alone ability.

Forget political doctrine. Such huge organisations will always produce inefficiency and waste.

And a good manager understands the limits of what they can achieve. Politicians are more interested in headlines and looking good.

Even the employment numbers are challenged at the margin, and they should be the easiest numbers to collect. For instance
Peter Carter, general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, said: "When you dig below the surface even further, an estimated 17 per cent of the headline increase in nurse numbers [since 1997] is made up of double-counting existing nurses working extra shifts.
Meanwhile, the union Unison claimed that
health workers' jobs are now being lost because welcome extra cash is often being sucked into an endless black hole of 'strategic' reforms, which don't appear to be linked to many meaningful front-line patient care outcomes.
Sometimes managers just have to concentrate on boring day to day stuff, rather than repeated strategic reorganisations which are undone later at great cost.

April 26, 2007

Relax, the planet is fine: an interview with Richard Lindzen

This Earth Day, Professor Richard Lindzen, an atmospheric physicist and the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT, wants you to calm down. The Earth, he says, is in good shape. "Forests are returning in Europe and the United States. Air quality has improved. Water quality has improved. We grow more food on less land. We've done a reasonably good job in much of the world in conquering hunger. And yet we're acting as though: "How can we stand any more of this?"

A leading critic on the theory of man-made global warming, Professor Lindzen has developed a reputation as America's anti-doom-and-gloom scientist. And he's not, he says, as lonely as you might think.

Q You don't dispute that the globe is warming?

A It has never been an issue of whether the Earth is warming -- because it's always warming or cooling. The issue is: What are the magnitudes involved? It's a big difference if it's warming a degree or two or 10, or if it's warming a few tenths of a degree.

Q And it's inconclusive how much it's warming?

A Sure it's inconclusive. It's a very hard thing to analyze because you have to average huge fluctuations over the whole Earth, and 70% of the Earth is oceans where you don't have weather stations. So you get different groups analyzing this. And they're pretty close. One group gets over the last century a warming of about .55 degrees centigrade. Another group says it's .75 degrees.

Q Is there any scenario in which global warming could be beneficial for the planet?

A Of course. Canada looks like it will benefit considerably if it were to happen. And it might very well happen -- but it won't be due to man.

Q You charge that the hysteria that's been created around global warming is an enormous financial scam. It's all about money?

A Well, how shall I put it? It's not all about money, but boy, there's a lot of money floating in it. I mean, emissions trading is going to be a multi-trillion dollar market. Emissions alone would keep small countries in business.

Q Are you suggesting that scientists manipulate their findings to get in on the gravy train?

A You have to differentiate the interests of different groups. In the scientific community, your interest is for your field to be recognized so that it will have priority in government funding.

Q So you are not accusing your scientific colleagues of corruption?

A No, I'm accusing them of behaving the way scientists always behave. In other words, some years ago, when Richard Nixon declared war on cancer, almost all the biological sciences then became cancer research. I mean, I don't call that corruption, I'm saying you orient your research so that it has a better chance to get resources.

Q And it helps if your findings suggest something catastrophic is about to happen?

A In this case it certainly has helped. First of all, the funding increased so greatly that it exceeded the capacity of the existing field to absorb it. You'll notice that Working Group 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change came up with lots of scary things, but everything was always preceded by could, might, may, all these qualifiers. And the reason it was is those studies start out assuming there's a lot of warming. They assume all the science is in, and then they say, 'Well, how will this impact my field of insect-borne diseases, or agriculture, or health?' So they are almost, by definition, going to generate catastrophic scenarios, but they will never be based on anything other than the hypothesis that this will already happen.

Q I read that you bet one of your colleagues that the Earth will actually be colder 20 years from now?

A I haven't bet on it, but I figure the odds are about 50-50. If you look at the temperature record for the globe over the last six years, it's gone no place. That's usually the way it behaves before it goes down. In fact, I suspect that's why you have this tsunami of exposure the last two years, with Gore's movie and so on. I think that this issue has been around long enough to generate a lot of agendas, and looking at the temperature records there must be a fear that if they don't get the agendas covered now, they may never get them.

Q Did you watch Al Gore get his Academy Award?

A No! Bad enough I watched his movie.

Q He would appear to have the support of the majority of your scientific colleagues.

A Not really. This is an issue that has hundreds of aspects. The very thought that a large number of scientists all agree on everything is inconceivable. Among my colleagues, I would say, almost no one thinks that Gore's movie is reasonable. But there will be differences. Some believe it is possible that warming could be a serious problem. Others think it's very unlikely. People are all over the place.

Q Some suggest that Roger Revelle, Gore's scientific mentor, would not have agreed with the movie?

A Well, he's dead.

Q Yes. So that makes it harder for him to speak out.

A It's a horrible story. Before he died, Roger Revelle co-authored a popular paper saying, 'We know too little to take any action based on global warming. If we take any action it should be an action that we can justify completely without global warming.' And Gore's staffers tried to have his name posthumously removed from that paper claiming he had been senile. And one of the other authors took it to court and won. It's funny how little coverage that got.

Q How cynical do you think Gore is?

A It's hard for me to tell. I think he's either cynical or crazy. But he has certainly cashed in on something. And 'cash in' is the word. The movie has cleared $50-million. He charges $100,000-$150,000 a lecture. He's co-founder of Global Investment Management, which invests in solar and wind and so on. So he is literally shilling for his own companies. And he's on the on the board of Lehman Brothers who want to be the primary brokerage for emission permits.

Q That sounds more cynical, less crazy.

A I think his aim is not to be president. It's to be a billionaire.

Q What do you find to be the attitude among your MIT undergraduates on global warming?

A I find that they realize they don't know enough to reach judgments. They all realize that Gore's book was a sham. They appreciate that Michael Crichton at least included references.

Q That's encouraging. Because I find the indoctrination at schools to be pretty relentless. On a recent Grade 7 test my daughter was asked something to the effect of, "How are you going to educate your parents about global warming?"

A I know. It's straight out of Hitlerjugend.

Q Having said that, are there any behaviours we should be changing, as a society, in order to protect our planet?

A Yes. We should learn math and physics so we don't get fooled by this idiocy.

April 25, 2007

British trucking industry disadvantaged

Richard North has an interesting piece explaining how the British government is dragging its feet over subjecting foreign lorries in Britain to the same disciplines as British lorries.

You would have thought this would be a priority, but no.

We highlighted on Sunday how foreign drivers are avoiding prosecution in London.

Looks like we need an overall policy rethink rather than just sticking plaster. But the greatest minds in governmet don't congregate in the Department for Transport.

More euro problems - now Spain

We looked the other day at strains the euro might be about to place on the Irish economy.

Today Open Europe picks up concerns about Spain. “Low interest rates set by the European Central Bank have fuelled a housing boom since Spain swapped the peseta for the euro in 1999, but excess stimulus has now seriously distorted the economy", reports The Telegraph, which also notes Spain’s current account deficit of 9.5% of GDP – a sign of “extreme overheating” – and reports that many economists predict a hard landing for the Spanish economy.

The governor of the Bank of Spain blamed the bubble on the wrong interest rates caused by Spanish euro membership. The Bank estimates that Spanish house prices are 35% overvalued.

Monetary policy is now shifting from being too loose to too tight for Spain, however, just as it is for Ireland. The ECB’s policies, in trying to cater for German demand for higher rates – which have risen seven times to 3.75% since December 2005 - have hit Spain with an "asymmetric effect", since 96% of mortgages are on floating rates. Most loans in Germany are on fixed rates, meaning that Spanish borrowers suffer disproportionately from interest rate rises. The monetary squeeze has been likened to Britain’s ERM debacle in 1992 – except Spain cannot use monetary policy as an escape route.

This huge difference in mortgage loan arrangements between the two countries is just another sign of how far they were from convergence when they joined the euro. It remains the case that most euro economies will have the wrong interest rate for most of the time.

Bernard Connolly, former head of economic research for the European Commission, said that Spain faces a brutal adjustment over the next two years - if it can remain in the euro at all. "Spain is going to face the very direst of economic circumstances: a cycle of recession, deflation and widespread private sector default - a depression in fact."

The great immigration deception

Andrew Green takes issue with Barbara Roche for describing Britain as "a nation of immigrants".

He points out that previous "waves" of immigration were in fact very small. So the government is thrown back on a second line of defence - that large-scale immigration has been good for the economy.
Two thirds of the public do not believe this, but the Government continues to repeat it. The public are, of course, right.

Nearly all the benefit of immigration goes to the immigrants themselves - which, naturally, is why they come.

The Government claims that the entire country benefits from the growth in our economy as a result of immigration, but calculations based on its own figures show that the value of this growth to each member of the indigenous community comes to less than 50p a week.

Not a lot, you may think, when you consider the added cost to the economy caused by current levels of immigration - cost in the form of the extra pressure on our public services and our infrastructure.

Indeed, the latest figures issued by the Government itself show that we shall need to build 200 houses a day, every day, for the next 20 years just to house new immigrants - not existing immigrants, but new ones. This takes no account of the illegal immigrants who must number at least half a million.
Andrew Green calls for a sharp reduction in immigration, in the interest of social cohesion. But of course everyone else from the EU can come here.

Bolton blunder

This story is astonishing but true. Bolton Council spent £440,000 on a 3,000-year-old Egyptian artefact, a statue of King Tut's half-sister, which had been owned by a Bolton family for more than a century.

And what do you know? It turned out to be a fraud.

To be fair, they did ask experts before they signed the cheque. But why were they prepared to spend council taxpayers' money like this?

The NHS is not universal

Professor Karol Sikora in The Telegraph argues that more and more people are supplementing the NHS by paying for faster treatment.

He also refers to the postcode lottery. What this means is that different hospitals perform differently. This has led to fatuous calls for uniformity across the NHS.

Doubtless these people have never run an organisation. Even Tesco stores aren't all the same, and a Tesco store is much simpler than any hospital. Such complex units will never produce identical performance across the country.

The postcode lottery is here to stay. For ever.

The Gore pledge

This is great. US Senator Inhofe has been asking Hollywood’s Global Warming Activists if they are ready to change the way they themselves live.
Senator Inhofe challenged celebrities to do what former Vice President Al Gore refuses to do – live up to their environmental rhetoric by reducing their home energy usage to the level of the average American household by Earth Day 2008. Global warming Hollywood activists such as Laurie David, John Travolta, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Madonna – to name a few – continue to alarm the public about fears of catastrophic global warming and demand that Americans change the way they live. The question remains however, will these same Hollywood alarmists reduce their own energy consumption by giving up their multiple houses and private jets to change the way they live? At the very least, will they pledge to reduce the energy usage at each of their multiple homes?
Note this is not a pledge that Gore made - it is a pledge that Gore refused.

Hollywood activists, Inhofe says, should make personal energy sacrifices themselves before demanding others do so.
“It is my hope that journalists will ask these Hollywood celebrities point blank: ‘will you take the Gore Pledge to reduce your home energy usage to the level of the average American?
The pledge the Senator put to Gore - and which Gore refused - was

As a believer:

-that human-caused global warming is a moral, ethical, and spiritual issue affecting our survival;

-that home energy use is a key component of overall energy use;

-that reducing my fossil fuel-based home energy usage will lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions; and

-that leaders on moral issues should lead by example;

-I pledge to consume no more energy for use in my residence than the average American household by one year from today.

A useful "Gore pledge" to put to other trendily concerned celebrities.

Conservatism and language

Helen Szamuely on EUReferendum commends Andrew Klavan’s article in the City Journal, "called “The Big White Lie”. Its basic argument is that leftism, having failed in real life, exists because it is more polite than gimlet-eyed conservatives."

His central point is that conservatives can speak honestly and eschew hypocrisy. He decries leftism's "tortuous attempts to rename unpleasant facts out of existence—he’s not crippled, dear, he’s handicapped".

Some of his political examples do highlight politicians' mealy mouthed political correctness. But using the word "crippled" is mere social boorishness.

He sounds like an irksome conversational companion.

April 24, 2007

How long can different benefits systems last?

A Hungarian calls to quote us for a company to do some building work.

Why do Hungarians want to come here, asks Mrs Scorpion.

Because of your benefits system, she replies.

If rich EU countries have more generous benefits systems, will they be able to sustain those benefits if they attract more immigrants?

Italian farm subsidy fraud worth millions of euros

Open Europe reports that OLAF and the Italian authorities have revealed fraud in southern Italy involving the EU’s farm subsidies.

According to Svenska Dagbladet, the EU paid out several million euros during the period 2001-2004 for buying and selling surpluses of citrus under the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. However, neither the farmers, nor the fruit nor the buyers actually existed.

Miffed over Mifid

All but three of the EU's 27 member states could face legal action for failing to implement the Mifid rules that form the basis of the shake-up of the financial services industry, reports the Financial Times.

Charlie McCreevy, the EU internal market commissioner, wrote to 24 national governments to express his "deep concern" about the delayed introduction of the directive.

He has warned them that countries that had not yet put the directive on their law-books face legal challenges by the Commission. So far, only the UK, Ireland and Romania (!) have implemented MiFID.

April 22, 2007

Re-organisations cost money

It's astonishing how casually government lobs out vast amount of taxpayers' money.

Nick Timmins in the Financial Times points out that there is no business case for the forthcoming reorganisation of the Home Office.
That is hardly surprising. "I cannot recall a business case for a machinery of government change ever being done," says one recent former permanent secretary who is a veteran of several of them. But it is remarkable. No business with the Home Office's £14bn turnover and 75,000 directly employed staff would consider a merger, acquisition or disposal on this scale without a business case: one that assesses the potential costs and benefits and the opportunity costs - the things that do not get done or simply go wrong in the course of reorganisation, or as a consequence of it.
The whole article is worth reading, but particularly his summary of the waste at the Department of Health.
The current reorganisation of primary care trusts has just cut their numbers from an original 400 to about 150. That, the government says, will save £250m a year. That figure, however, is itself an admission that the creation of the original 400, less than five years ago, added a similar annual sum to administrative costs. And there will be a redundancy bill from the current change that the government estimates to be £350m and is likely to be more. So unscrambling what was done in 2002 will in one year alone, let alone over the five, have cost about £650m, which is almost exactly the amount by which the National Health Service has overspent.
Rearranging big organisations costs a lot of money. It is always fair to ask the government
  • What does a reorganisation aim to achieve?

  • What will it cost?

  • Why can't the aims be achieved more cheaply?

  • Will it be value for money?

  • How can we judge its success?
Don't expect answers. Politicians prefer to spend hundreds of millions of pounds of our money just to look as if they're doing something, rather than husband resources carefully. Pilots don't make for dramatic headlines, and in most cases would doubtless prove inconclusive.

How much better to look swashbuckling. You'll soon be moving on, minister, and then your successor can spend more money boldly reversing it all.

Not caught on camera

Of the 500,000 people caught on speed or traffic light cameras in London each year, the BBC reports that one third cannot be traced - some are foreign vehicles, and some are not registered with the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA). "About 350,000 people who have been caught are sent a "Notice of Intent to Prosecute" but only 48% end up getting points on their licences and a fine."

The BBC said it had uncovered evidence drivers were registering cars at addresses other than their own to evade capture.

One of the country's chief constables clearly has a strong sense of humour. Either that, or he thinks we're stupid.
The Association of Chief Police Officers traffic spokesman, Chief Constable Meredydd Hughes, said detection rates for all crimes was [sic] 30% and that in that context speed camera offences were being reasonably enforced.
More sensibly, Kevin Delaney, former head of the Met's traffic police, said the figures were evidence of a wider problem that speed cameras can only catch people who are basically law-abiding.

The "road safety charity Brake" claimed that speed cameras are "a proven deterrent". Brake's "grant funders" include The Department for Transport, The Scottish Executive, and The Department of Health, so they are not independent. Probably it suits the government to have a notionally independent group urging them on to stricter road safety measures.

Leaving aside non-independent Brake, what serious plans does the government have for tackling the freeloading underclass who don't insure or register their vehicles?

There is a far more serious issue there than mere occasional jumping of a red light in the heat of the moment. Maybe real success with the freeloading underclass would make road pricing unnecessary?

The bureaucratic police will never get a grip on this. Government needs to think more widely.

Payment by results, anyone?

Is the Irish party ending?

Ireland's economy has been booming for years - partly on the back of EU subsidies, and partly because of low Euro interest rates. But now, reports Liam Halligan,
Irish inflation is now above 5 per cent - the highest in Europe. And the euro's surge against the dollar is harming Ireland's high-tech exports to America. But it is the ECB's "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy that has done the most damage.
"Having dealt with unsuitably low rates, Ireland now has rates that are too high".
Over the past three years, as Germany has prospered, the ECB has raised borrowing costs seven times, and counting.

So Ireland - and other countries in southern Europe - now face cripplingly high rates in the midst of an accelerating downturn. The euro has flipped them from boom to bust.
It's hard to see Germany wanting monetary conditions relaxed.

The euro could be about to become less popular.

Defining the immigration question

When a politician seeks to define the question, look out. It means he's trying to avoid an issue.

John Reid was up to this today.
Mr Reid said: "Most people aren't opposed to foreigners; they're opposed to unfairness.

"So what they worry about is people coming here illegally, people working here illegally, undermining the minimum wage, undermining the terms and conditions, safety and all of the good terms that protect workers and consumers.

"If that is being done people can see the benefits of immigration."
This is wrong, of course. Wage levels fall when immigrants can replace British people in jobs, as John Denman pointed out months ago. It's irrelevant to the poorer British worker whether the immigrant is illegal or not.

As the BBC reports,
Civitas has warned that immigration could lead to the political break-up of Britain and that it may have reached a "tipping point" beyond which it could no longer be seen as a single nation.

Its pamphlet - A Nation of Immigrants? - said the "seemingly reckless pace and scale" of immigration was bound to cause concern for people who saw the UK as a model of tolerance and freedom.
It adds that "Shadow home secretary David Davis called on the government to put a cap on those coming to the UK". And "The Home Office said it had already announced a tough new points system aimed at immigrants".

This is only shadow-boxing with the immigration issue. The UK government has no power over EU immigration.

But politicians and the BBC seem to think it's not polite to mention the EU in the immigration debate.

£52 per man hour

That's the charge out rate levied by Derbyshire police force if you want policing for a parade at Ilkeston.

Seems a bit excessive to me. Would the six officers really have been paid this hourly rate, or does this price include our friend Contribution to Overheads?

There's a public interest element here. Policing for events should be provided at the lowest possible cost.

Of course, Derbyshire police couldn't be subjected to a competitive tender.

April 18, 2007

Belated immigration policy

Covered quite well by The World At One today, with pointed questioning by Martha Kearney on the lines of, What took you so long.

They discussed the proposals as if they would cover all immigration. Which of course they wouldn't. Immigration from the EU wouldn't be included.

Who's pushing the Scottish snake oil?

Philip Stephens in the Financial Times accuses Alex Salmond of offering economic snake oil to the Scots electorate. Stephens - establishment figure that he is - naturally prefers Mr Blair's new message.
Of course [Scotland] could make its way in the world on its own. The real question was: why should it want to give up the advantages of its relationship with the rest of the UK? The Union had become a partnership of equals. If both sides could do well outside it, each does better within.
Stephens naturally approves of the new Blair formulation.
The argument for the Union can be won - in England as much as in Scotland - only if voters on either side of the border recognise the mutual advantage.
Mr Salmond, he says, is selling sweetened snake oil.

Partnership of equals? The population of England is 50m, the population of Scotland 5m.

Partnership of equals? Mr Blair himself has claimed that independence would cost each Scottish household £5,000 a year.

A smaller nation may benefit from closeness to a larger nation, but it's less easy to see how England benefits from the Union with its smaller neighbours and their begging bowls.

Perhaps glib snake oil salesman Blair would care to explain. Somehow, I doubt it.

April 14, 2007

This is not a story

The Financial Times for some reason runs a story that "key workers" cannot afford property in Chalfont St Peter, quite a nice place in Buckinghamshire. The story is that ambulance staff have to commute in.

And the point of this story in a national newspaper is ... what? Doubtless teachers and dustmen and postmen don't live locally either.

Probably nor do the shop assistants, who are also key workers, as otherwise there would be no shops there.

Commuting is a fact of life. It may not be greenily correct. But it happens.

April 10, 2007

More BBC bias

This time it was the BBC1 10 o'clock news. Foster parents get weekly payments from government. Astonishingly, grandparents don't. The BBC report showcased a hard-up grandparent, and then a prosperous looking official who said he couldn't see why grandparents shouldn't be paid like foster parents.

I'll tell you why, matey (though biased BBC couldn't find the time). Because there isn't a bottomless pot of fairy gold waiting to be doled out to grateful grannies. Because the money would come from parents of other children.

Cut at the end to Huw Edwards with furrowed brow. "If you are a grandparent and want to comment, you can go to bbc.co.uk/haveyoursay". And what if I'm a mere taxpayer and licence fee payer, Huw in your expensive suit which I paid for?

April 08, 2007

The climate is always changing

So stresses Prof Bob Carter, in discussing the IPCC's three main categories of argument for a dangerous human influence on climate (in his words) -
  1. The satellite temperature record shows no substantial warming since 1978, and even the ground-based thermometer statistic records no warming since 1998. So a key line of circumstantial evidence for human-caused change (the parallel rise in the late 20th century of both atmospheric carbon dioxide and surface temperature) is now negated.

  2. Al Gore's film claims that human greenhouse emissions are causing accelerated melting of icecaps, dangerous increases in the rate of sea-level rise, increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts or catastrophic storms, and enhanced rates of biodiversity loss.

    But this ignores two facts. The first is that all environmental phenomena fluctuate in their rate, frequency or intensity as part of the normal workings of our dynamic planet. The second, which follows, is that whether a particular short-term change over, say, the early 21st century has any human causation can only be assessed when all the causes of natural environmental change are fully understood.

    However, no case yet has any climate-sensitive environmental parameter been shown to be changing at a rate that exceeds its historic natural rate of change, let alone in a way that can be unequivocally associated with human causation.

  3. The IPCC uses computer calculations to assess the likely future course of the climate. That the IPCC relies so heavily upon complex GCM-generated scenarios as the basis for its climate alarmism is alarming in its own right; it also reflects the absence of any strong empirical evidence for human-caused climate change, as outlined earlier.

So, asks Carter, how much longer can politicians sustain the fiction that dangerous human-caused climate change is upon us?
That climate change is part of our planet's normal, dynamic behaviour is not in doubt. Nor should there be any doubt about the need for governments to prepare sensible response plans for future climate change, both warmings and coolings. But reflection on recent climatic episodes like the "little Ice Ages" makes it plain that future climatic coolings will cause much greater damage to our societies than will mild warmings similar to that of the 20th century.

That 20th-century warming, the most recent of many previous warm phases of similar or greater magnitude, was dangerous or human-caused, or even that the warming has continued after 1998, both yet remain to be demonstrated.

Oops, government is ungreen again

A greenie has claimed we need to spend more on flood defences. Oops, didn't the government reduce that expenditure?

Damn inconvenient this greenery. Sometimes it seems to involve more than just raising taxes and curbing freedoms.

Warning over surgery kit reporting

A bizarre BBC piece reports the tit for tat between the government and the British Orthopaedic Association over plans to move sterilisation of equipment out of hospitals.

The government wants instruments to be cleaned at about 50 new "super centres" across England and Wales. The doctors say this could lead to delays in operations, while "Ministers insist centralisation is needed to ensure hospitals meet new standards for cleanliness".

There are clearly issues here of cost, flexibility and cleanliness.

(Incidentally, has anyone run this policy past that green Mr Miliband? How much will those pesky carbon emissions rise? Not that I believe in that stuff, I just like having a pop when government ignores its own pieties.)

Anyway, the National Audit Office has been asked for a view on whether the new policy represents value for money. (Er, no impact assessment? Whatever next.)

Meanwhile
In January, new figures obtained by Conservative MP Grant Shapps showed there had been a big increase in the number of operations cancelled due to a lack of sterile surgical instruments.

A total of 1,765 operations were cancelled in 2005/06 - up 40% from 1,252 in 2002/03.
This figure shouldn't exist. How much does it cost this nationalised mammoth to collect numbers like this? If they must run this unwieldy monster in their controlling top down fashion, have they never heard of light sampling?

And now to what passes for reporting. What's the context of these numbers, for example how many operations were carried out in total? How many instances were there of inadequately sterilised instruments?

Without some basic numbers, the BBC's reading public can only be uninformed spectators of this game of verbal tennis.

The BBC report is no guide to understanding.

April 07, 2007

Tories to divorce Scotland?

Fraser Nelson claims in The Spectator that the Conservatives are considering cutting their Scottish wing adrift. This would allow the Tories to tap into the
growing resentment about the role of Scottish MPs. Why, for example, should they have been the decisive factor in the vote to raise university tuition fees in England three years ago when the Scottish Parliament has used its slush fund to ensure Scottish universities have no up-front charges at all? In a few months’ time, there may be an even greater provocation to English sensitivities in the form of a Scottish prime minister with a Scottish constituency. Mr Brown will be the living embodiment of the infamous West Lothian question: why should Scottish MPs decide issues for England that do not affect their own constituents? There is also the small issue of the £11 billion subsidy Mr Brown already ships each year to Scotland. New analysis by The Spectator shows that this represents an annual levy of £450 from each English taxpayer.
Nelson argues that
As the Conservatives won the most votes in England in the 2005 general election (a fact it mentions far too seldom) they can reasonably expect to have the most seats in England. If Messrs Brown & Campbell used their Scottish MPs to block a party with a clear mandate for England, there would be outrage south of the border, and rightly so.
Yes, but the system gave them 92 fewer seats. Highlighting this must surely be part of any "English strategy". But oops, that's a number.

An abysmal BBC news bulletin

On the night the Iranian captives were released, BBC 10 o'clock news gave extended coverage to families' reactions. They were raising glasses in celebration, but some of them said they would not truly celebrate until their family members were home.

Well knock me down with a feather.

We passed on to coverage of the crowd trouble at Roma v. Man U. Like the families, they gave this time because they had pictures. Then we could hear from a reporter, who told us what we'd already seen. No word of possible consequences, or even of the score!

Now I don't care about the score, but isn't News supposed to be about facts?

And if the BBC's flagship bulletin is going to adopt the news values of ITN, why are we paying for all those journalists?

Greenness in education policy

Hard on the heels of Brighton Council's egalitarian policy of allocating school places by lot comes the suggestion that children should be refused entry to good schools unless they can walk or cycle to the gates, in an attempt to slash car use on the school run. Any pupil applying to a popular school from outside the catchment area would be barred as part of a move designed to cut pollution.
The comments come after ministers raised the prospect of fining parents who drive their children to school.
The suggestion is that schools should give priority places to pupils whose "travel causes the least damage to the environment", effectively rejecting any child who lives more than two miles from the gates.

Oops. Won't this mean dearer neighbourhoods around good schools, the very trend that Brighton is trying to subvert?

There is an issue here, but it's not bonkers greenery. Local government spends oodles of our money transporting children to distant schools.

Perhaps we could have some of it back?

Drivers break speed limit shock

Speeding is endemic in Britain with around half the country's motorists regularly flouting the limit, according to figures released by the Department for Transport, and reported in The Telegraph.

No doubt the government spent taxpayers' money to discover this. Out in the real world, we know that speeding laws are broken millions of times every day. And the number of road deaths? In 2004, the total was 2,915. How many would be prevented if everyone kept to the speed limits all the time? Probably rather few.

Meanwhile, "With more than 2,200 deaths attributed to Clostridium difficile in death certificates in England and Wales, the mortality rate is fast approaching that for road traffic accidents and is now around half that for suicide," says a doctor. More than 50,000 patients over the age of 65 suffered C difficile infection in hospitals in England last year compared with around 7,000 who caught MRSA.

The doctor is asking "whether C difficile can still be thought of as a purely hospital acquired infection and whether other infection control measures are needed, such as screening people in the community before they are admitted electively".

Maybe this would be a better use of our money than installing more speed cameras. We wait to hear from Douglas (the road pricing debate is over) Alexander.

April 01, 2007

What the Child Poverty Action Group really want

During the recent exchanges on so called child poverty, Kate Green, chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group, said: "Simply resorting to getting more parents into work is not good enough if ministers are serious about ending child poverty."

Whatever could she mean? She explained in a letter to the Financial Times.
Ministers must realise that only a broader strategy, ensuring adequate incomes for those in work and for those unable to work, underpinned by an assault on inequality, can sustain a reduction in child poverty. If the government is serious about meeting its child poverty targets, it must address the structural causes of poverty, including Britain's dependence on poverty-pay jobs and our high levels of inequality compared with European countries with low child poverty rates.
So the CPAG are calling for nothing less than a huge and idealistic revolution in the UK's economy.

But doubtless even then there will still be some households with children in "relative poverty", ensuring continuing employment for Kate and her fellow commissars.

McStalin in danger

Stalin, or is it BrownHurrah. An opinion poll in Scotland puts the SNP on 35% compared with 29% for Labour.

The Telegraph makes the important point that
At the last election, the Conservatives secured more votes in England than Labour.
Let's hope we see more reminders of this in the run-up to the Scottish elections. What the report doesn't mention is that those fewer votes brought Labour 92 more seats than the Tories got with their slightly larger number.

(You'd think the Tories would make something of this, but ne'er a word.)

So it's English for Salmond. Otherwise our town halls can fly the blue EU flag topped with the scottish saltire.

And England has another reason to support Salmond. Tony Blair has told the Scots that
If you elect an SNP government you are going to be living with them, and their commitment to independence and a referendum within the next parliament. You are going to be living with that for years. And at a cost - £5000 per household.
That would be more English money Labour is giving away.

Home Office art

The Telegraph reports the Home Office has had to pay at least £15,000 to cancel an artwork which looked as if it might be (as the paper nicely phrases it) "too heavy for purpose".

As someone who's never worked in the public sector, what astonishes me is that "a committee headed by Sir David Normington, the permanent secretary, pulled the plug on the project".

Why does this need a committee? And why to goodness did it need the permanent secretary to head it?

Think what that committee's time must have cost.

And no wonder the Home Office isn't fit for purpose if its senior people spend their time this way.

Clunk, clunk

Stalin, or is it Brown Indeed there's something clunking about Gordon Brown, but it's not his fist.

Whether it's the phantom budget tax cut; whether it's pretending his pension grab wouldn't hurt people when he knew it would; whether it's announcing long needed new helicopters for Afghanistan when he happened to be there on a visit - he is just not subtle enough to hide his deceit and his ego. Somehow he seems to think we won't notice.

Let's hope the Scots vote the SNP in and save the English from Brown. Then we can turn our attention to free Welsh prescriptions (see next post).

Prescription charges end in Wales

The BBC website carries comment for and against from within Wales.

None of the Welsh bothers to comment that it's the English footing the bill for this largesse. The Welsh couldn't afford it on their own.

And English prescription charges? They're rising 20p to £6.85.